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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 48

New Orleans Saints 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 4-B.Gillikin punts 33 yards to TB 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at TB 18 for 3 yards (50-A.Dowell).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.75 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP