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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to TB 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 21 for 6 yards (50-A.Dowell).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.27 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 19, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model