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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 46

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(:48) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NO 1, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-30-D.Delaney.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.25 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model