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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to NO 28, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-E.Winston to NO 32 for 4 yards (97-Z.Triner).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.88 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP