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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to TB 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 22 for 2 yards (50-A.Dowell; 20-P.Werner).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.12 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model