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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NO 28, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-E.Winston to NO 36 for 8 yards (97-Z.Triner, 51-K.Minter). PENALTY on NO-53-Z.Baun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 28.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.59 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP