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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 4-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to TB 9, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 19 for 10 yards (38-J.Heath).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.54 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP