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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 8-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to NO 34, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.19 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model