4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 19-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.80 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model