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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 52

New Orleans Saints 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 4-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to TB 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.85 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model