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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 8-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NO 19, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-E.Winston.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.62 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -2.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP