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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 19-B.Maher 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.86 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model