Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

(4:02) 8-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to NO 9, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-E.Winston pushed ob at NO 43 for 34 yards (97-Z.Triner).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.10 EP
67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model