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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 41

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to SEA 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-F.Swain to SEA 17 for 9 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.35 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP