4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
SEA Away

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Tuesday 2021-12-21 · 19:00 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

SEA
34.8%
LA
65.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.199 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SEA offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 22
–
LA 27
Projected margin: LA by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

SEA

No players on the report.

LA

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 10
–
LA 20

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:21 FG LA (8:21) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SEA 0 – LA 3
  • Q2 00:14 FG SEA (:14) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – LA 3
  • Q3 09:27 TD SEA (9:27) 31-D.Dallas up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – LA 3
  • Q3 06:35 TD LA (6:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – LA 9
  • Q4 10:55 TD LA (10:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Woods]. SEA 10 – LA 16
  • Q4 01:56 FG LA (1:56) 8-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SEA 10 – LA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 66%

    (8:21) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%

    (4:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to LA 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 20 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to LA 32, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 18 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 56%

    (5:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to SEA 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-F.Swain to SEA 17 for 9 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to LA 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-B.Powell to LA 25 for no gain (42-J.Jones).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 76%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Kupp (56-J.Brooks).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 17 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%

    (:14) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:26) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to SEA 30, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-F.Swain to SEA 35 for 5 yards (96-M.Hoecht; 84-L.Akers).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to LA 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 14 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to LA 13, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 15 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:32) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to SEA 46, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 34%

    (3:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 31-D.Dallas (50-E.Jones) [91-G.Gaines]. PENALTY on SEA-31-D.Dallas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at 50.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 9 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (1:56) 8-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.