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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 32

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Kupp (56-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.86 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model