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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(:14) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +4.84 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model