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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to LA 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.18 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model