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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 92

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to SEA 46, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.68 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 92, worth -5.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 50, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model