4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 17

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 8-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +2.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model