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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.11 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model