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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to LA 32, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.87 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 36, worth -2.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model