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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(14:25) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.91 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP