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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2021-12-19 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

TEN
52.9%
PIT
47.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): -0.025 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT on 3 more days rest than TEN

Predicted Final Score

TEN 23
–
PIT 22
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

TEN

Tory Carter FB Out Ankle
Janoris Jenkins CB Out Ankle
David Long LB Out Hamstring
Larrell Murchison DT Out Knee
Rodger Saffold G Out Shoulder
Teair Tart DT Out Ankle
Aaron Brewer C Questionable Toe

PIT

Isaiah Buggs DE Questionable Ankle
Buddy Johnson LB Questionable Foot
Joe Haden CB Questionable Foot
Kevin Rader TE Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 13
–
PIT 19

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:44 TD TEN (7:44) 71-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 17-R.Tannehill right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – PIT 0
  • Q1 01:16 FG TEN (1:16) 14-R.Bullock 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 10 – PIT 0
  • Q2 10:39 FG PIT (10:39) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. TEN 10 – PIT 3
  • Q2 00:21 FG TEN (:21) 14-R.Bullock 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 13 – PIT 3
  • Q3 03:11 TD PIT (3:11) 7-B.Roethlisberger up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – PIT 9
  • Q4 13:27 FG PIT (13:27) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. TEN 13 – PIT 13
  • Q4 07:25 FG PIT (7:25) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. TEN 13 – PIT 16
  • Q4 04:34 FG PIT (4:34) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. TEN 13 – PIT 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 27 yards to TEN 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:29) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to PIT 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 35 for 17 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:29) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 80-C.Rogers to PIT 35 for 55 yards (54-U.Gilbert). PENALTY on PIT-42-J.Pierre, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 35.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:14) 6-P.Harvin punts 32 yards to TEN 47, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (1:16) 14-R.Bullock 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (14:25) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 92%

    (10:39) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (:21) 14-R.Bullock 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 23%

    (11:36) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 23 for 11 yards (53-D.Cole).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:21) 6-P.Harvin punts 49 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 27 for no gain (42-J.Pierre). FUMBLES (42-J.Pierre), and recovers at TEN 20.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (13:27) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 81%

    (7:25) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 75%

    (4:34) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 69%

    (2:12) 71-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 7-D.Foreman right tackle to PIT 32 for 1 yard (39-M.Fitzpatrick; 41-R.Spillane). Official measurement.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.61 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to PIT 10 for 6 yards (23-J.Haden). Official measurement. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.