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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 14

Tennessee Titans 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:21) 14-R.Bullock 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.67 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model