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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 51

Tennessee Titans 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 23 for 11 yards (53-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.07 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model