4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 16

Tennessee Titans 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 19

What Actually Happened

(:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to PIT 10 for 6 yards (23-J.Haden). Official measurement. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +2.59 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.61 EP