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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 79

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 6-P.Harvin punts 32 yards to TEN 47, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model