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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 72

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 5-T.Way punts 60 yards to PHI 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 23 for 11 yards (45-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP