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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Tuesday 2021-12-21 · 19:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

WAS
29.8%
PHI
70.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • PHI on 7 more days rest than WAS
  • Garrett Gilbert (WAS): -0.083 EPA/dropback in prior starts (WAS starting Garrett Gilbert in place of Taylor Heinicke)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 19
–
PHI 26
Projected margin: PHI by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

WAS

No players on the report.

PHI

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 17
–
PHI 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:20 TD WAS (8:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – PHI 0
  • Q1 02:50 FG WAS (2:50) 16-B.Johnson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 10 – PHI 0
  • Q2 08:10 FG PHI (8:10) 4-J.Elliott 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. WAS 10 – PHI 3
  • Q2 01:34 TD PHI (1:34) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – PHI 9
  • Q3 12:30 TD PHI (12:30) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – PHI 16
  • Q3 00:24 FG PHI (:24) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. Penalty on WAS-93-Jon.Allen, Defensive Offside, declined. WAS 10 – PHI 20
  • Q4 11:50 TD WAS (11:50) (Shotgun) 32-J.Patterson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – PHI 20
  • Q4 07:53 TD PHI (7:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 84-G.Ward for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 17 – PHI 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 30%

    (12:47) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to PHI 13, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (2:50) 16-B.Johnson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 59%

    (13:35) 24-J.Howard left end pushed ob at WAS 31 for 7 yards (39-J.Reaves). PENALTY on PHI-68-J.Mailata, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 31.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 51%

    (13:24) 8-A.Siposs punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (11:44) 5-T.Way punts 60 yards to PHI 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 23 for 11 yards (45-D.Harris).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (8:10) 4-J.Elliott 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (6:26) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to PHI 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:41) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to PHI 30, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 31 for 1 yard (35-J.Williams).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 43%

    (8:41) 8-A.Siposs punts 34 yards to WAS 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:24) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to PHI 27, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 37 for 10 yards (2-D.Brown; 40-A.Armah).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 92%

    (:24) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. Penalty on WAS-93-Jon.Allen, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 56%

    (2:43) (Shotgun) 19-G.Gilbert sacked at PHI 49 for -10 yards (91-F.Cox). FUMBLES (91-F.Cox) [91-F.Cox], recovered by WAS-83-R.Seals-Jones at PHI 49.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.91 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 86%

    (:24) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard left end to WAS 20 for 4 yards (90-M.Sweat; 52-J.Davis).