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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 49

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to PHI 13, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.76 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.26 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP