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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 67

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to PHI 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP