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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 44

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 8-A.Siposs punts 34 yards to WAS 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.49 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model