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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 19

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(:24) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. Penalty on WAS-93-Jon.Allen, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.12 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 19, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model