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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 39

Washington Commanders 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

What Actually Happened

(2:43) (Shotgun) 19-G.Gilbert sacked at PHI 49 for -10 yards (91-F.Cox). FUMBLES (91-F.Cox) [91-F.Cox], recovered by WAS-83-R.Seals-Jones at PHI 49.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.28 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model