4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 24

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(:24) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard left end to WAS 20 for 4 yards (90-M.Sweat; 52-J.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +1.62 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.91 EP