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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2021-12-26 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

BUF
38.2%
NE
61.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.245 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.150 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

BUF 19
–
NE 24
Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

BUF

Star Lotulelei DT Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

NE

Nelson Agholor WR Out Concussion
Joshuah Bledsoe S Out Calf
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Out Illness
David Andrews C Questionable Shoulder
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Ribs
Brandon Bolden RB Questionable Knee
Nick Folk K Questionable left Knee
Damien Harris RB Questionable Hamstring
N'Keal Harry WR Questionable Hip
Adrian Phillips S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 33
–
NE 21

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:43 TD BUF (6:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – NE 0
  • Q2 14:36 TD NE (14:36) 37-D.Harris left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – NE 6
  • Q2 09:04 FG BUF (9:04) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. BUF 10 – NE 7
  • Q2 01:48 TD BUF (1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – NE 7
  • Q3 09:05 FG BUF (9:05) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. BUF 20 – NE 7
  • Q3 01:44 TD NE (1:44) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – NE 13
  • Q4 11:45 TD BUF (11:45) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 26 – NE 14
  • Q4 07:42 TD NE (7:42) 37-D.Harris left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37-Harris 5th 100-yard game of season, 8th career. BUF 26 – NE 20
  • Q4 02:34 TD BUF (2:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. shovel pass BUF 32 – NE 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:47) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 5-M.Stevenson ran ob at BUF 39 for 4 yards (25-B.Bolden).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (6:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 20%

    (3:36) 37-D.Harris right tackle to BUF 48 for 4 yards (49-T.Edmunds).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 78%

    (15:00) 37-D.Harris right end pushed ob at BUF 16 for 12 yards (54-A.Klein).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (9:04) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (4:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 1-E.Sanders.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 92
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:23) 7-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to BUF 43, Center-49-J.Cardona. 5-M.Stevenson to NE 42 for 15 yards (48-J.Tavai).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 65%

    (2:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to NE 11 for 23 yards (32-D.McCourty; 58-J.Collins).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 18 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:12) 7-J.Bailey punts 63 yards to BUF 5, Center-49-J.Cardona. 5-M.Stevenson pushed ob at BUF 20 for 15 yards (36-B.King).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 14 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (9:05) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 86%

    (5:26) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones up the middle to BUF 17 for 6 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 96-C.Basham).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

    (3:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to BUF 3 for 7 yards (58-M.Milano).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 65%

    (4:27) 17-J.Allen left end to NE 26 for 8 yards (32-D.McCourty).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 69 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne to BUF 49 for 20 yards (49-T.Edmunds, 24-T.Johnson).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 26%

    (1:13) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde at BUF 3. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 3 for no gain (16-J.Meyers).