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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 28

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 37-D.Harris right end pushed ob at BUF 16 for 12 yards (54-A.Klein).

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.40 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT +0.64 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model