Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to CHI 38, Center-69-T.Ott. 83-D.Newsome pushed ob at CHI 42 for 4 yards (25-T.Homer). PENALTY on CHI-30-D.Virgin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.51 EP
69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model