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Chicago Bears

5-10 HC Matt Nagy
@
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Seattle Seahawks

5-10 HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2021-12-26 · 16:05 ET Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

CHI
40.1%
SEA
59.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.009 vs Nick Foles (CHI) -0.045 EPA/dropback (CHI starting Nick Foles in place of Justin Fields)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CHI 19 12–26
–
SEA 23 16–30
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

CHI

Xavier Crawford CB Out Concussion
Andy Dalton QB Out left Hand
Jakeem Grant WR Out Concussion
Jason Peters T Out Ankle
Justin Fields QB Questionable Ankle
Eddie Goldman DT Questionable Finger
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Foot

SEA

Jon Rhattigan LB Out Knee
Blessuan Austin CB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 25
–
SEA 24

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:08 TD SEA (9:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – SEA 6
  • Q2 10:17 TD CHI (10:17) 64-A.Bars reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – SEA 7
  • Q2 04:51 TD SEA (4:51) 20-R.Penny left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – SEA 13
  • Q2 00:22 FG SEA (:22) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. CHI 7 – SEA 17
  • Q3 05:36 TD CHI (5:36) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – SEA 17
  • Q3 03:38 TD SEA (3:38) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 81-G.Everett for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 14 – SEA 23
  • Q4 10:46 FG CHI (10:46) 2-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 17 – SEA 24
  • Q4 01:07 TD CHI (1:07) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 23 – SEA 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to CHI 38, Center-69-T.Ott. 83-D.Newsome pushed ob at CHI 42 for 4 yards (25-T.Homer). PENALTY on CHI-30-D.Virgin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 38.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:12) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (:37) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery to SEA 2 for 2 yards (56-J.Brooks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:53) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to SEA 43, Center-69-T.Ott. 83-D.Newsome to SEA 15 for 28 yards (19-P.Hart).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to SEA 28, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-92-C.Johnson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 93%

    (:22) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 20 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to SEA 36, Center-48-P.Scales. 18-F.Swain to CHI 49 for 15 yards (48-P.Scales).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 42%

    (11:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 25 yards to CHI 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 83-D.Newsome.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (12:42) 9-N.Foles up the middle to SEA 5 for 1 yard (99-A.Woods). Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

    (10:46) 2-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 17 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 89%

    (7:23) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:09) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete deep left to 8-D.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 16-T.Lockett [55-B.Irvin]. PENALTY on CHI-55-B.Irvin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 14 yards, enforced between downs.

    See the full breakdown →