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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 56

Chicago Bears 7 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to SEA 28, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-92-C.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.54 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model