Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 79

Chicago Bears 7 – Seattle Seahawks 17

(12:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to SEA 36, Center-48-P.Scales. 18-F.Swain to CHI 49 for 15 yards (48-P.Scales).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.04 EP
75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 79, worth -4.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model