4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 64

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.30 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP