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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 6

Chicago Bears 14 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 9-N.Foles up the middle to SEA 5 for 1 yard (99-A.Woods). Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +3.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.72 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 6, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model