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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 17

Chicago Bears 14 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 2-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model