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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.79 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model