Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Chicago Bears 25

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 16-T.Lockett [55-B.Irvin]. PENALTY on CHI-55-B.Irvin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 14 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP

What Happened

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.36 EP
54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -1.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP