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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 19

Cleveland Browns 12 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 8-C.Naggar 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model