Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.184 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.285 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CLE offense: -0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
CLE
GB
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:27 TD CLE (12:27) 24-N.Chubb left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – GB 0
- Q1 05:19 TD GB (5:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-A.Lazard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – GB 6
- Q2 10:50 TD GB (10:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-S.Takitaki]. CLE 6 – GB 13
- Q2 07:08 TD CLE (7:08) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-H.Bryant for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 12 – GB 14
- Q2 00:16 TD GB (:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Offside, declined. CLE 12 – GB 20
- Q3 09:16 FG GB (9:16) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. CLE 12 – GB 24
- Q3 01:11 FG CLE (1:11) 8-C.Naggar 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. CLE 15 – GB 24
- Q4 04:36 TD CLE (4:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 10-A.Schwartz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 21 – GB 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 66Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(10:56) 33-A.Jones right end to GB 38 for 4 yards (36-M.Stewart).
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Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(8:55) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 17 for 4 yards (42-O.Burks). PENALTY on CLE-29-H.Miller, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 16.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 66Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(3:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 39 for 5 yards (29-R.Douglas). Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
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Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(4:53) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-S.Wirtel, downed by GB-24-I.Yiadom.
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Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%
(9:16) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 16 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 91%
(1:11) 8-C.Naggar 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(15:00) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at CLE 28 for 15 yards (46-S.Wirtel).
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Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 73Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 58%
(6:48) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.
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Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 58 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(2:14) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 11-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at CLE 25 for 8 yards (41-H.Black).