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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 73

Green Bay Packers 24 – Cleveland Browns 15

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP